F5, Inc. logo FFIV - F5, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 24
HOLD 33
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $351.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $475.00
LOW: $292.00
MEDIAN: $320.00
CONSENSUS: $351.75
DOWNSIDE: 10.64%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 57.3% above fair value
Current Price $393.63
Bear Case $233.31 40.7% downside ($233.31 - $393.63) / $393.63 = -40.7% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $250.19 36.4% downside ($250.19 - $393.63) / $393.63 = -36.4% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $271.60 31.0% downside ($271.60 - $393.63) / $393.63 = -31.0% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

4.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (4% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 34%
Implied Market Multiple 29.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $351.75 from 61 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $250.19 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 33% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $351.75 (from 61 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions