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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 20
SELL 6
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $276.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $321.00
LOW: $210.00
MEDIAN: $300.00
CONSENSUS: $276.38
UPSIDE: 19.13%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 6.9% below fair value
Current Price $232.00
Bear Case $243.36 4.9% upside ($243.36 - $232.00) / $232.00 = 4.9% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.91x TBV
Fair Value $249.14 7.4% upside ($249.14 - $232.00) / $232.00 = 7.4% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $249.14 7.4% upside ($249.14 - $232.00) / $232.00 = 7.4% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

27.3%
8.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (27.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.87x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $276.38 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $249.14 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly