FactSet Research Systems Inc. logo FDS - FactSet Research Systems Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 20
SELL 7
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $251.09 DETAILS
HIGH: $304.00
LOW: $210.00
MEDIAN: $253.00
CONSENSUS: $251.09
DOWNSIDE: 16.85%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 22.8% above fair value
Current Price $301.96
Bear Case $233.61 22.6% downside ($233.61 - $301.96) / $301.96 = -22.6% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.80x TBV
Fair Value $245.90 18.6% downside ($245.90 - $301.96) / $301.96 = -18.6% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $245.90 18.6% downside ($245.90 - $301.96) / $301.96 = -18.6% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

27.3%
8.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (27.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 4.91x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 27.3% vs. 8.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $61.48 tangible book, implying $245.90 per share. DDM cross-check: $193.13.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $251.09
Analyst Range $210.00 – $304.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 2%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly