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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 20
SELL 7
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $256.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $301.00
LOW: $215.00
MEDIAN: $251.50
CONSENSUS: $256.75
DOWNSIDE: 17.78%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 24.7% above fair value
Current Price $312.27
Bear Case $199.39 36.1% downside ($199.39 - $312.27) / $312.27 = -36.1% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.54x TBV
Fair Value $250.38 19.8% downside ($250.38 - $312.27) / $312.27 = -19.8% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $325.49 4.2% upside ($325.49 - $312.27) / $312.27 = 4.2% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

26.6%
8.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (26.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 5.55x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 26.6% vs. 8.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $56.29 tangible book, implying $250.38 per share. DDM cross-check: $172.10.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (30 analysts) $256.75
Analyst Range $215.00 – $301.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 2%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $172.10 (31% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly