FDS - FactSet Research Systems Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$251.09
DETAILS
HIGH:
$304.00
LOW:
$210.00
MEDIAN:
$253.00
CONSENSUS:
$251.09
DOWNSIDE:
16.85%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
27.3%
8.2%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (27.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
4.91x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 27.3% vs. 8.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $61.48 tangible book, implying $245.90 per share. DDM cross-check: $193.13.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$251.09
Analyst Range
$210.00 – $304.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
2%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly