FDS - FactSet Research Systems Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$256.75
DETAILS
HIGH:
$301.00
LOW:
$215.00
MEDIAN:
$251.50
CONSENSUS:
$256.75
DOWNSIDE:
17.78%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
26.6%
8.5%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (26.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.5%)
Implied Market Multiple
5.55x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 26.6% vs. 8.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $56.29 tangible book, implying $250.38 per share. DDM cross-check: $172.10.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$256.75
Analyst Range
$215.00 – $301.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
2%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $172.10 (31% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly