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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 20
SELL 7
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $254.36 DETAILS
HIGH: $340.00
LOW: $210.00
MEDIAN: $253.00
CONSENSUS: $254.36
UPSIDE: 3.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 1.1% below fair value
Current Price $245.21
Bear Case $234.39 4.4% downside ($234.39 - $245.21) / $245.21 = -4.4% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.78x TBV
Fair Value $248.02 1.1% upside ($248.02 - $245.21) / $245.21 = 1.1% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $248.02 1.1% upside ($248.02 - $245.21) / $245.21 = 1.1% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

27.3%
8.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (27.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.99x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $254.36 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $248.02 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly