Franklin Covey Co. logo FC - Franklin Covey Co.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $25.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $25.00
CONSENSUS: $25.00
UPSIDE: 19.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 49.0% below fair value
Current Price $20.97
Bear Case $41.09 95.9% upside ($41.09 - $20.97) / $20.97 = 95.9% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $41.09 95.9% upside ($41.09 - $20.97) / $20.97 = 95.9% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $43.73 108.5% upside ($43.73 - $20.97) / $20.97 = 108.5% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (3% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 5.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) -9.0% vs our 3.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $25.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $41.09 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 189% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $25.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 80% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions