First Advantage Corporation logo FA - First Advantage Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $16.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $18.00
LOW: $15.00
MEDIAN: $16.50
CONSENSUS: $16.50
DOWNSIDE: 26.50%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 96.2% above fair value
Current Price $22.45
Bear Case $3.33 85.2% downside ($3.33 - $22.45) / $22.45 = -85.2% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $11.44 49.0% downside ($11.44 - $22.45) / $22.45 = -49.0% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $20.28 9.7% downside ($20.28 - $22.45) / $22.45 = -9.7% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 46.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 20.2% vs our 14.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $16.50 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $11.44 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $16.50 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions