First Advantage Corporation logo FA - First Advantage Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $25.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $30.00
LOW: $18.00
MEDIAN: $26.00
CONSENSUS: $25.00
UPSIDE: 16.93%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 41.8% below fair value
Current Price $21.38
Bear Case $19.33 9.6% downside ($19.33 - $21.38) / $21.38 = -9.6% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $36.72 71.7% upside ($36.72 - $21.38) / $21.38 = 71.7% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $56.18 162.8% upside ($56.18 - $21.38) / $21.38 = 162.8% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 21.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 10.0% vs our 15.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $36.72 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (12 analysts) $25.00
Analyst Range $18.00 – $30.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 47%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $25.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 47% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions