AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Extra Space Storage Inc. as a Real Estate Investment Trust business and values it using P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag EXR as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Extra Space Storage Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for EXR comes from a P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Real Estate Investment Trust classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value EXR?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. EXR was classified as Real Estate Investment Trust and is valued using P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple, built from EXR's most recent reported fundamentals.

EXR - Extra Space Storage Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $158.33 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate

Trading 30.3% below fair value

Current Price $132.91

Bear Case $156.98 18.1% upside ($156.98 - $132.91) / $132.91 = 18.1% $8.00 FFO × 23x

Fair Value $190.68 43.5% upside ($190.68 - $132.91) / $132.91 = 43.5% $8.00 FFO × 29x

Bull Case $224.37 68.8% upside ($224.37 - $132.91) / $132.91 = 68.8% $8.00 FFO × 34x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

28.6x

FFO per Share

8.0$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($8.00) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 16.6x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At $8.00 FFO/share with a 29x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $190.68 per share. Dividend yield: 4.9%. DDM cross-check: $102.04.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (28 analysts) $158.33

Analyst Range $146.00 – $172.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 20%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $102.04 (46% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify