AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Extra Space Storage Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag EXR as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Extra Space Storage Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for EXR is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value EXR?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from EXR's most recent reported fundamentals.

EXR - Extra Space Storage Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $153.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate

Trading 21.0% below fair value

Current Price $146.14

Bear Case $152.48 4.3% upside ($152.48 - $146.14) / $146.14 = 4.3% $8.00 FFO × 23x

Fair Value $185.06 26.6% upside ($185.06 - $146.14) / $146.14 = 26.6% $8.00 FFO × 29x

Bull Case $217.64 48.9% upside ($217.64 - $146.14) / $146.14 = 48.9% $8.00 FFO × 34x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

28.6x

FFO per Share

8.0$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($8.00) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 18.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $153.00 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $185.06 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $118.92 (39% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $153.00 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify