Etsy, Inc.: GMS And Inventory-Free Model Makes Us Re-Evaluate
Etsy demonstrates resilient operating leverage, with a 2025 turnaround from -6.5% to +0.9% YoY GMS growth by Q3. ETSY's asset-light model and rising take-rate (24.9% in Q3 2025) drive high-margin incremental EBITDA, with scenario modeling projecting 35.4%–39% margins by 2027. Share buybacks and disciplined capital allocation support shareholder returns, but aggressive fee hikes risk seller churn and platform erosion.