AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Elastic N.V. as a High-Growth Software business and values it using Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF, then compares the result to the current market price to flag ESTC as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Elastic N.V.'s fair value?

Fair value for ESTC comes from a Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's High-Growth Software classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value ESTC?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. ESTC was classified as High-Growth Software and is valued using Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF, built from ESTC's most recent reported fundamentals.

ESTC - Elastic N.V.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $79.50 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

High-Growth Software 80% confidence

Primary model: Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 6.5% above fair value

Current Price $97.55

Bear Case $53.05 45.6% downside ($53.05 - $97.55) / $97.55 = -45.6% 11% rev growth, 17% terminal margin

Fair Value $91.62 6.1% downside ($91.62 - $97.55) / $97.55 = -6.1% 18% rev growth, 23% terminal margin

Bull Case $133.47 36.8% upside ($133.47 - $97.55) / $97.55 = 36.8% 24% rev growth, 26% terminal margin

Adjust Assumptions

Revenue Growth Rate

18.0%

Terminal FCF Margin

23.0%

Discount Rate

12.0%

Key Value Driver

Revenue growth (18%) × margin expansion to 23%

Terminal Value % of EV 55%

Implied Market Multiple 5.4x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Projecting 18% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 20% to 23% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $91.62 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (34 analysts) $79.50

Analyst Range $49.00 – $120.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 15%

Warnings

ℹ Gross margin of 76% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.

Key Risks

Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep