ESCO Technologies Inc. logo ESE - ESCO Technologies Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $350.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $400.00
LOW: $300.00
MEDIAN: $350.00
CONSENSUS: $350.00
UPSIDE: 18.40%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 60.0% above fair value
Current Price $295.62
Bear Case $142.47 51.8% downside ($142.47 - $295.62) / $295.62 = -51.8% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $184.79 37.5% downside ($184.79 - $295.62) / $295.62 = -37.5% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $224.69 24.0% downside ($224.69 - $295.62) / $295.62 = -24.0% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 42.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $350.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $184.79 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $350.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions