Equity Bancshares, Inc. logo EQBK - Equity Bancshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $56.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $51.00
MEDIAN: $57.00
CONSENSUS: $56.20
UPSIDE: 12.74%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 3.1% below fair value
Current Price $49.85
Bear Case $36.02 27.8% downside ($36.02 - $49.85) / $49.85 = -27.8% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $51.45 3.2% upside ($51.45 - $49.85) / $49.85 = 3.2% ROTCE 3.6% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $66.89 34.2% upside ($66.89 - $49.85) / $49.85 = 34.2% ROTCE 4.2% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

3.6%
8.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (3.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.63x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 3.6% vs. 8.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $30.55 tangible book, implying $51.45 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (6 analysts) $56.20
Analyst Range $51.00 – $60.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 8%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (3.6%) is below the minimum investors require (8.5%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly