Equity Bancshares, Inc. logo EQBK - Equity Bancshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $54.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $53.00
CONSENSUS: $54.20
UPSIDE: 10.88%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 5.0% below fair value
Current Price $48.88
Bear Case $36.02 26.3% downside ($36.02 - $48.88) / $48.88 = -26.3% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $51.45 5.3% upside ($51.45 - $48.88) / $48.88 = 5.3% ROTCE 3.6% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $66.89 36.8% upside ($66.89 - $48.88) / $48.88 = 36.8% ROTCE 4.2% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

3.6%
8.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (3.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.6x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 3.6% vs. 8.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $30.51 tangible book, implying $51.45 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (6 analysts) $54.20
Analyst Range $50.00 – $60.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 5%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (3.6%) is below the minimum investors require (8.7%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly