Equity Bancshares, Inc. logo EQBK - Equity Bancshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $54.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $58.00
LOW: $51.00
MEDIAN: $54.00
CONSENSUS: $54.25
UPSIDE: 13.26%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 7.9% below fair value
Current Price $47.90
Bear Case $36.41 24.0% downside ($36.41 - $47.90) / $47.90 = -24.0% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $52.01 8.6% upside ($52.01 - $47.90) / $47.90 = 8.6% ROTCE 3.6% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $67.62 41.2% upside ($67.62 - $47.90) / $47.90 = 41.2% ROTCE 4.2% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

3.6%
8.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (3.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.57x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $54.25 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.01 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (3.6%) is below the minimum investors require (8.6%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly