EPAM Systems, Inc. logo EPAM - EPAM Systems, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 12
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $124.44 DETAILS
HIGH: $200.00
LOW: $85.00
MEDIAN: $112.00
CONSENSUS: $124.44
UPSIDE: 41.94%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 53.2% below fair value
Current Price $87.67
Bear Case $140.11 59.8% upside ($140.11 - $87.67) / $87.67 = 59.8% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $187.45 113.8% upside ($187.45 - $87.67) / $87.67 = 113.8% 11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $235.45 168.6% upside ($235.45 - $87.67) / $87.67 = 168.6% 15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.4%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 7.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) -4.0% vs our 11.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $124.44 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $187.45 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 47% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $124.44 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 72% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions