The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. logo EL - The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 19
HOLD 22
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $99.77 DETAILS
HIGH: $140.00
LOW: $75.00
MEDIAN: $95.00
CONSENSUS: $99.77
UPSIDE: 21.69%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 9.2% above fair value
Current Price $81.99
Bear Case $61.83 24.6% downside ($61.83 - $81.99) / $81.99 = -24.6% $3.79 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $75.08 8.4% downside ($75.08 - $81.99) / $81.99 = -8.4% $3.79 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $88.33 7.7% upside ($88.33 - $81.99) / $81.99 = 7.7% $3.79 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
3.79$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $99.77 from 46 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $75.08 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $99.77 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples