EastGroup Properties, Inc. logo EGP - EastGroup Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 15
HOLD 17
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $204.73 DETAILS
HIGH: $230.00
LOW: $172.00
MEDIAN: $210.00
CONSENSUS: $204.73
DOWNSIDE: 0.21%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 13.8% below fair value
Current Price $205.16
Bear Case $194.73 5.1% downside ($194.73 - $205.16) / $205.16 = -5.1% $8.82 FFO × 23x
Fair Value $238.01 16.0% upside ($238.01 - $205.16) / $205.16 = 16.0% $8.82 FFO × 29x
Bull Case $281.28 37.1% upside ($281.28 - $205.16) / $205.16 = 37.1% $8.82 FFO × 34x

Adjust Assumptions

28.6x
8.82$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($8.82) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 23.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $204.73 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $238.01 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify