Equifax Inc. logo EFX - Equifax Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 22
HOLD 11
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $227.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $265.00
LOW: $195.00
MEDIAN: $222.00
CONSENSUS: $227.60
UPSIDE: 38.75%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 31.5% above fair value
Current Price $164.04
Bear Case $99.80 39.2% downside ($99.80 - $164.04) / $164.04 = -39.2% $5.38 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $124.76 23.9% downside ($124.76 - $164.04) / $164.04 = -23.9% $5.38 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $149.70 8.7% downside ($149.70 - $164.04) / $164.04 = -8.7% $5.38 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
5.38$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 30.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $227.60 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $124.76 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $134.71 (above our primary estimate by 67%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $227.60 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples