AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Ecopetrol S.A. as a Oil & Gas E&P business and values it using FCF at Price Deck × Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag EC as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Ecopetrol S.A.'s fair value?

Fair value for EC comes from a FCF at Price Deck × Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Oil & Gas E&P classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value EC?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. EC was classified as Oil & Gas E&P and is valued using FCF at Price Deck × Multiple, built from EC's most recent reported fundamentals.

EC - Ecopetrol S.A.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $16.85 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 53.8% below fair value

Current Price $17.57

Bear Case $18.92 7.7% upside ($18.92 - $17.57) / $17.57 = 7.7% FCF $5762M × 12x

Fair Value $38.05 116.5% upside ($38.05 - $17.57) / $17.57 = 116.5% FCF $6779M × 16x

Bull Case $61.13 247.9% upside ($61.13 - $17.57) / $17.57 = 247.9% FCF $7796M × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

Oil Price ($/bbl)

75.0$/bbl

EV/FCF Multiple

16.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 9.8x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At $75/bbl oil with a 16x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $38.05 per share. Range: $18.92 (bear) to $61.13 (bull).

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $16.85

Analyst Range $16.00 – $17.70

Divergence from AlphaVal 126%

Warnings

⚠ Debt per share ($14.71) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.

ℹ Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $16.85 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 126% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

ℹ Financial statements were converted from COP into USD using USDCOP at 0.0003 USD per COP.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential