AXIA Energia S.A. logo EBR - AXIA Energia S.A.

Inactive Ticker EBR is not actively trading. Quotes and analytics may be stale.
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 1878.6% above fair value
Current Price $9.20
Bear Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $9.20) / $9.20 = -100.0% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $0.46 94.9% downside ($0.46 - $9.20) / $9.20 = -94.9% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $1.21 86.8% downside ($1.21 - $9.20) / $9.20 = -86.8% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 58.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 23.3% vs our 7.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $0.46 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Financial statements were converted from BRL into USD using USDBRL at 0.1977 USD per BRL.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions