AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies AXIA Energia S.A. as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag EBR as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is AXIA Energia S.A.'s fair value?

Fair value for EBR comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value EBR?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. EBR was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from EBR's most recent reported fundamentals.

EBR - AXIA Energia S.A.

Price: -- --

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate

Trading 36.2% below fair value

Current Price $9.20

Bear Case $12.61 37.1% upside ($12.61 - $9.20) / $9.20 = 37.1% $0.90 × 14x P/E

Fair Value $14.41 56.6% upside ($14.41 - $9.20) / $9.20 = 56.6% $0.90 × 16x P/E

Bull Case $16.21 76.2% upside ($16.21 - $9.20) / $9.20 = 76.2% $0.90 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

16.0x

Adjusted EPS

0.9$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 10.2x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.90, the base-case value is $14.41 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company pays out 107% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

ℹ Financial statements were converted from BRL into USD using USDBRL at 0.2001 USD per BRL.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples