Domino's Pizza, Inc. logo DPZ - Domino's Pizza, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 26
HOLD 25
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $378.79 DETAILS
HIGH: $480.00
LOW: $315.00
MEDIAN: $372.50
CONSENSUS: $378.79
UPSIDE: 14.07%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 12.1% below fair value
Current Price $332.06
Bear Case $316.26 4.8% downside ($316.26 - $332.06) / $332.06 = -4.8% $17.57 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $377.75 13.8% upside ($377.75 - $332.06) / $332.06 = 13.8% $17.57 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $439.25 32.3% upside ($439.25 - $332.06) / $332.06 = 32.3% $17.57 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
17.57$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $17.57, the base-case value is $377.75 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (52 analysts) $378.79
Analyst Range $315.00 – $480.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 0%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples