Domino's Pizza, Inc. logo DPZ - Domino's Pizza, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 28
HOLD 23
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $404.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $540.00
LOW: $315.00
MEDIAN: $395.00
CONSENSUS: $404.67
UPSIDE: 35.13%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 24.5% below fair value
Current Price $299.46
Bear Case $332.14 10.9% upside ($332.14 - $299.46) / $299.46 = 10.9% $17.94 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $396.71 32.5% upside ($396.71 - $299.46) / $299.46 = 32.5% $17.94 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $461.30 54.0% upside ($461.30 - $299.46) / $299.46 = 54.0% $17.94 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.9x
17.94$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $404.67 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $396.71 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples