Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. logo DFIN - Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 3
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $62.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $62.00
LOW: $62.00
MEDIAN: $62.00
CONSENSUS: $62.00
UPSIDE: 24.15%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.2% below fair value
Current Price $49.94
Bear Case $54.45 9.0% upside ($54.45 - $49.94) / $49.94 = 9.0% $3.06 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $65.03 30.2% upside ($65.03 - $49.94) / $49.94 = 30.2% $3.06 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $75.62 51.4% upside ($75.62 - $49.94) / $49.94 = 51.4% $3.06 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
3.06$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $62.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $65.03 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 166%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples