Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. logo DFIN - Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 3
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $62.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $62.00
LOW: $62.00
MEDIAN: $62.00
CONSENSUS: $62.00
UPSIDE: 58.97%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 36.4% below fair value
Current Price $39.00
Bear Case $42.95 10.1% upside ($42.95 - $39.00) / $39.00 = 10.1% ROTCE 6.4% → 0.50x TBV
Fair Value $61.36 57.3% upside ($61.36 - $39.00) / $39.00 = 57.3% ROTCE 8.5% → 0.94x TBV
Bull Case $79.77 104.5% upside ($79.77 - $39.00) / $39.00 = 104.5% ROTCE 9.8% → 1.20x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.5%
8.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.5%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.57x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $62.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $61.36 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (8.5%) is below the minimum investors require (8.9%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly