Dell Technologies Inc. logo DELL - Dell Technologies Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 25
HOLD 15
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $228.88 DETAILS
HIGH: $300.00
LOW: $148.00
MEDIAN: $229.00
CONSENSUS: $228.88
DOWNSIDE: 22.47%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 78.3% above fair value
Current Price $295.22
Bear Case $132.46 55.1% downside ($132.46 - $295.22) / $295.22 = -55.1% $9.23 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $165.56 43.9% downside ($165.56 - $295.22) / $295.22 = -43.9% $9.23 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $198.68 32.7% downside ($198.68 - $295.22) / $295.22 = -32.7% $9.23 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
9.23$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 32.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $228.88 from 43 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $165.56 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $228.88 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples