DoorDash, Inc. logo DASH - DoorDash, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 28
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $257.92 DETAILS
HIGH: $350.00
LOW: $200.00
MEDIAN: $267.50
CONSENSUS: $257.92
UPSIDE: 60.95%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 4.3% below fair value
Current Price $160.25
Bear Case $95.43 40.5% downside ($95.43 - $160.25) / $160.25 = -40.5% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $167.47 4.5% upside ($167.47 - $160.25) / $160.25 = 4.5% 20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $257.38 60.6% upside ($257.38 - $160.25) / $160.25 = 60.6% 26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 49.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $257.92 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $167.47 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 112% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $257.92 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions