Citizens Financial Services, Inc. logo CZFS - Citizens Financial Services, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 64.0% below fair value
Current Price $74.88
Bear Case $151.75 102.7% upside ($151.75 - $74.88) / $74.88 = 102.7% ROTCE 11.0% → 2.92x TBV
Fair Value $208.18 178.0% upside ($208.18 - $74.88) / $74.88 = 178.0% ROTCE 14.6% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $208.18 178.0% upside ($208.18 - $74.88) / $74.88 = 178.0% ROTCE 16.8% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.6%
6.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.6%) vs. cost of equity (6.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.44x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.6% vs. 6.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $52.04 tangible book, implying $208.18 per share. DDM cross-check: $39.50.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $39.50 (81% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly