Citizens Financial Services, Inc. logo CZFS - Citizens Financial Services, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 69.4% below fair value
Current Price $63.60
Bear Case $144.75 127.6% upside ($144.75 - $63.60) / $63.60 = 127.6% ROTCE 11.0% → 2.78x TBV
Fair Value $208.18 227.3% upside ($208.18 - $63.60) / $63.60 = 227.3% ROTCE 14.6% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $208.18 227.3% upside ($208.18 - $63.60) / $63.60 = 227.3% ROTCE 16.8% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.6%
6.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.6%) vs. cost of equity (6.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.22x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.6% vs. 6.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $52.04 tangible book, implying $208.18 per share. DDM cross-check: $38.01.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $38.01 (82% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly