Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. logo CWCO - Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 51.9% below fair value
Current Price $29.41
Bear Case $43.97 49.5% upside ($43.97 - $29.41) / $29.41 = 49.5% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $61.18 108.0% upside ($61.18 - $29.41) / $29.41 = 108.0% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $79.40 170.0% upside ($79.40 - $29.41) / $29.41 = 170.0% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (13% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 41%
Implied Market Multiple 11.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $61.18 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions