CVBF - CVB Financial Corp.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$26.67
DETAILS
HIGH:
$28.00
LOW:
$25.00
MEDIAN:
$27.00
CONSENSUS:
$26.67
UPSIDE:
16.36%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
13.7%
8.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.7%) vs. cost of equity (8.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.65x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 13.7% vs. 8.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.45x on $8.66 tangible book, implying $23.40 per share. DDM cross-check: $12.14.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$26.67
Analyst Range
$25.00 – $28.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
12%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $12.14 (48% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly