CVB Financial Corp. logo CVBF - CVB Financial Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 10
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $28.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $27.00
CONSENSUS: $26.67
UPSIDE: 19.54%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 16.4% below fair value
Current Price $22.31
Bear Case $17.28 22.6% downside ($17.28 - $22.31) / $22.31 = -22.6% ROTCE 10.3% → 1.63x TBV
Fair Value $26.69 19.6% upside ($26.69 - $22.31) / $22.31 = 19.6% ROTCE 13.7% → 2.51x TBV
Bull Case $32.34 44.9% upside ($32.34 - $22.31) / $22.31 = 44.9% ROTCE 15.8% → 3.04x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.7%
7.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.7%) vs. cost of equity (7.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.1x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 13.7% vs. 7.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.51x on $10.62 tangible book, implying $26.69 per share. DDM cross-check: $13.52.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $26.67
Analyst Range $25.00 – $28.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 0%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $13.52 (49% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly