CVB Financial Corp. logo CVBF - CVB Financial Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 10
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $28.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $27.00
CONSENSUS: $26.67
UPSIDE: 16.36%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 2.1% below fair value
Current Price $22.92
Bear Case $16.38 28.5% downside ($16.38 - $22.92) / $22.92 = -28.5% ROTCE 10.3% → 1.59x TBV
Fair Value $23.40 2.1% upside ($23.40 - $22.92) / $22.92 = 2.1% ROTCE 13.7% → 2.45x TBV
Bull Case $30.42 32.7% upside ($30.42 - $22.92) / $22.92 = 32.7% ROTCE 15.8% → 2.97x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.7%
8.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.7%) vs. cost of equity (8.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.65x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 13.7% vs. 8.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.45x on $8.66 tangible book, implying $23.40 per share. DDM cross-check: $12.14.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $26.67
Analyst Range $25.00 – $28.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 12%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $12.14 (48% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly