Salesforce, Inc. logo CRM - Salesforce, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
2
BUY 74
HOLD 19
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $265.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $325.00
LOW: $215.00
MEDIAN: $265.00
CONSENSUS: $265.75
UPSIDE: 59.98%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 48.8% below fair value
Current Price $166.11
Bear Case $222.82 34.1% upside ($222.82 - $166.11) / $166.11 = 34.1% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $324.23 95.2% upside ($324.23 - $166.11) / $166.11 = 95.2% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $429.54 158.6% upside ($429.54 - $166.11) / $166.11 = 158.6% 16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

12.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 41%
Implied Market Multiple 12.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 2.3% vs our 12.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $265.75 from 97 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $324.23 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 47% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $265.75 (from 97 analysts). Our estimate is 34% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions