Cricut, Inc. logo CRCT - Cricut, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Sell DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 0
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $3.88 DETAILS
HIGH: $4.00
LOW: $3.75
MEDIAN: $3.88
CONSENSUS: $3.88
DOWNSIDE: 2.51%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 77.8% below fair value
Current Price $3.98
Bear Case $13.25 232.8% upside ($13.25 - $3.98) / $3.98 = 232.8% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $17.93 350.4% upside ($17.93 - $3.98) / $3.98 = 350.4% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $22.65 469.0% upside ($22.65 - $3.98) / $3.98 = 469.0% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 3.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $17.93 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 45% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions