Coupang, Inc. logo CPNG - Coupang, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $31.00
LOW: $22.00
MEDIAN: $25.00
CONSENSUS: $26.20
UPSIDE: 62.53%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 13.2% below fair value
Current Price $16.12
Bear Case $11.27 30.1% downside ($11.27 - $16.12) / $16.12 = -30.1% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $18.58 15.3% upside ($18.58 - $16.12) / $16.12 = 15.3% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $27.35 69.7% upside ($27.35 - $16.12) / $16.12 = 69.7% 23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

18.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (18% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 39.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $26.20 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.58 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $26.20 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions