AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes ConocoPhillips's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag COP as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is ConocoPhillips's fair value?

Fair value for COP is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value COP?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from COP's most recent reported fundamentals.

COP - ConocoPhillips

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $140.58 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate

Trading 17.8% below fair value

Current Price $114.10

Bear Case $64.02 43.9% downside ($64.02 - $114.10) / $114.10 = -43.9% FCF $11741M × 8x

Fair Value $138.86 21.7% upside ($138.86 - $114.10) / $114.10 = 21.7% FCF $16773M × 11x

Bull Case $238.65 109.2% upside ($238.65 - $114.10) / $114.10 = 109.2% FCF $21805M × 14x

Adjust Assumptions

Oil Price ($/bbl)

75.0$/bbl

EV/FCF Multiple

11.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $140.58 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $138.86 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential