COF - Capital One Financial Corporation
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$267.18
DETAILS
HIGH:
$300.00
LOW:
$213.00
MEDIAN:
$270.00
CONSENSUS:
$267.18
UPSIDE:
42.51%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
3.6%
10.1%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (3.6%) vs. cost of equity (10.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.7x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $267.18 from 56 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $210.03 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (3.6%) is below the minimum investors require (10.1%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $267.18 (from 56 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly