The Vita Coco Company, Inc. logo COCO - The Vita Coco Company, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 6
HOLD 5
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $69.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $78.00
LOW: $63.00
MEDIAN: $70.00
CONSENSUS: $69.50
DOWNSIDE: 8.60%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 88.5% above fair value
Current Price $76.04
Bear Case $34.57 54.5% downside ($34.57 - $76.04) / $76.04 = -54.5% $1.19 × 24x P/E
Fair Value $40.33 47.0% downside ($40.33 - $76.04) / $76.04 = -47.0% $1.19 × 28x P/E
Bull Case $46.09 39.4% downside ($46.09 - $76.04) / $76.04 = -39.4% $1.19 × 32x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

27.8x
1.19$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (28x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 63.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $69.50 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $40.33 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $69.50 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples