The Vita Coco Company, Inc. logo COCO - The Vita Coco Company, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 9
HOLD 3
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $71.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $78.00
LOW: $65.00
MEDIAN: $71.00
CONSENSUS: $71.60
UPSIDE: 0.28%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 67.3% above fair value
Current Price $71.40
Bear Case $36.58 48.8% downside ($36.58 - $71.40) / $71.40 = -48.8% $1.19 × 24x P/E
Fair Value $42.68 40.2% downside ($42.68 - $71.40) / $71.40 = -40.2% $1.19 × 28x P/E
Bull Case $48.78 31.7% downside ($48.78 - $71.40) / $71.40 = -31.7% $1.19 × 32x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

27.8x
1.19$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (28x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 60.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $71.60 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $42.68 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $71.60 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples