PC Connection, Inc. logo CNXN - PC Connection, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 65.4% above fair value
Current Price $81.22
Bear Case $39.27 51.6% downside ($39.27 - $81.22) / $81.22 = -51.6% $3.27 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $49.09 39.6% downside ($49.09 - $81.22) / $81.22 = -39.6% $3.27 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $58.91 27.5% downside ($58.91 - $81.22) / $81.22 = -27.5% $3.27 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.27$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.27, the base-case value is $49.09 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples