Columbia Financial, Inc. logo CLBK - Columbia Financial, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $17.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $17.00
LOW: $17.00
MEDIAN: $17.00
CONSENSUS: $17.00
DOWNSIDE: 16.50%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 245.3% above fair value
Current Price $20.36
Bear Case $4.13 79.7% downside ($4.13 - $20.36) / $20.36 = -79.7% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $5.90 71.0% downside ($5.90 - $20.36) / $20.36 = -71.0% ROTCE 5.0% → 0.49x TBV
Bull Case $8.61 57.7% downside ($8.61 - $20.36) / $20.36 = -57.7% ROTCE 5.7% → 0.86x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

5.0%
6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (5.0%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.04x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 5.0% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.49x on $10.00 tangible book, implying $5.90 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (5.0%) is below the minimum investors require (6.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly