Colgate-Palmolive Company logo CL - Colgate-Palmolive Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 19
HOLD 24
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $96.30 DETAILS
HIGH: $102.00
LOW: $79.00
MEDIAN: $99.50
CONSENSUS: $96.30
UPSIDE: 3.32%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 50.6% above fair value
Current Price $93.21
Bear Case $50.96 45.3% downside ($50.96 - $93.21) / $93.21 = -45.3% $2.77 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $61.87 33.6% downside ($61.87 - $93.21) / $93.21 = -33.6% $2.77 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $72.80 21.9% downside ($72.80 - $93.21) / $93.21 = -21.9% $2.77 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
2.77$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 33.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $96.30 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $61.87 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $96.30 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples