Colgate-Palmolive Company logo CL - Colgate-Palmolive Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 25
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $97.78 DETAILS
HIGH: $109.00
LOW: $79.00
MEDIAN: $100.00
CONSENSUS: $97.78
UPSIDE: 7.50%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 103.4% above fair value
Current Price $90.95
Bear Case $36.82 59.5% downside ($36.82 - $90.95) / $90.95 = -59.5% $2.63 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $44.71 50.8% downside ($44.71 - $90.95) / $90.95 = -50.8% $2.63 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $52.60 42.2% downside ($52.60 - $90.95) / $90.95 = -42.2% $2.63 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
2.63$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 34.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.63, the base-case value is $44.71 per share. DDM cross-check: $40.52.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (45 analysts) $97.78
Analyst Range $79.00 – $109.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 54%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $97.78 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples