City Office REIT, Inc. logo CIO - City Office REIT, Inc.

Inactive Ticker CIO is not actively trading. Quotes and analytics may be stale.
Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $15.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $15.00
LOW: $15.00
MEDIAN: $15.00
CONSENSUS: $15.00
UPSIDE: 114.59%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 51.6% below fair value
Current Price $6.99
Bear Case $11.29 61.5% upside ($11.29 - $6.99) / $6.99 = 61.5% $1.03 FFO × 13x
Fair Value $14.44 106.6% upside ($14.44 - $6.99) / $6.99 = 106.6% $1.03 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $17.59 151.7% upside ($17.59 - $6.99) / $6.99 = 151.7% $1.03 FFO × 21x

Adjust Assumptions

16.9x
1.03$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.03) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 6.8x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.03 FFO/share with a 17x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $14.44 per share. Dividend yield: 5.7%. DDM cross-check: $7.45.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (8 analysts) $15.00
Analyst Range $15.00 – $15.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 4%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.7% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $7.45 (48% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify