Chewy, Inc. logo CHWY - Chewy, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 31
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $31.54 DETAILS
HIGH: $43.00
LOW: $23.00
MEDIAN: $30.00
CONSENSUS: $31.54
UPSIDE: 48.14%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 29.1% above fair value
Current Price $21.29
Bear Case $14.44 32.2% downside ($14.44 - $21.29) / $21.29 = -32.2% $0.52 × 17x P/E
Fair Value $16.49 22.5% downside ($16.49 - $21.29) / $21.29 = -22.5% $0.52 × 19x P/E
Bull Case $18.56 12.8% downside ($18.56 - $21.29) / $21.29 = -12.8% $0.52 × 22x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

19.2x
0.52$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 40.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.54 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $16.49 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $31.54 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 68% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples