Chewy, Inc. logo CHWY - Chewy, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 29
HOLD 10
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $28.85 DETAILS
HIGH: $36.00
LOW: $23.00
MEDIAN: $28.00
CONSENSUS: $28.85
UPSIDE: 58.34%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 82.4% above fair value
Current Price $18.22
Bear Case $8.74 52.0% downside ($8.74 - $18.22) / $18.22 = -52.0% $0.52 × 17x P/E
Fair Value $9.99 45.2% downside ($9.99 - $18.22) / $18.22 = -45.2% $0.52 × 19x P/E
Bull Case $11.24 38.3% downside ($11.24 - $18.22) / $18.22 = -38.3% $0.52 × 22x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

19.2x
0.52$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 35.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.52, the base-case value is $9.99 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (39 analysts) $28.85
Analyst Range $23.00 – $36.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 65%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $28.85 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples