C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. logo CHRW - C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 20
HOLD 22
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $201.23 DETAILS
HIGH: $230.00
LOW: $91.00
MEDIAN: $206.00
CONSENSUS: $201.23
UPSIDE: 0.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 78.4% above fair value
Current Price $199.61
Bear Case $89.50 55.2% downside ($89.50 - $199.61) / $199.61 = -55.2% $4.90 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $111.87 44.0% downside ($111.87 - $199.61) / $199.61 = -44.0% $4.90 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $134.25 32.7% downside ($134.25 - $199.61) / $199.61 = -32.7% $4.90 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
4.9$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 40.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $201.23 from 46 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $111.87 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $52.24 (below our primary estimate by 29%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $201.23 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples