AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Churchill Downs Incorporated's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag CHDN as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Churchill Downs Incorporated's fair value?

Fair value for CHDN is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value CHDN?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from CHDN's most recent reported fundamentals.

CHDN - Churchill Downs Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $145.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 19.3% above fair value

Current Price $85.52

Bear Case $38.10 55.4% downside ($38.10 - $85.52) / $85.52 = -55.4% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Fair Value $71.67 16.2% downside ($71.67 - $85.52) / $85.52 = -16.2% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Bull Case $102.17 19.5% upside ($102.17 - $85.52) / $85.52 = 19.5% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

DCF Stage 1 Growth Rate

7.1%

Discount Rate (WACC)

11.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%

Implied Market Multiple 23.0x

Market is pricing in (growth) 10.9% vs our 7.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $145.00 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $71.67 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $145.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions