Citizens Financial Group, Inc. logo CFG - Citizens Financial Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 31
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $72.42 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $65.00
MEDIAN: $73.00
CONSENSUS: $72.42
UPSIDE: 15.15%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 1.0% above fair value
Current Price $62.89
Bear Case $43.58 30.7% downside ($43.58 - $62.89) / $62.89 = -30.7% ROTCE 7.6% → 0.60x TBV
Fair Value $62.26 1.0% downside ($62.26 - $62.89) / $62.89 = -1.0% ROTCE 10.2% → 1.02x TBV
Bull Case $80.93 28.7% upside ($80.93 - $62.89) / $62.89 = 28.7% ROTCE 11.7% → 1.28x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

10.2%
10.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (10.2%) vs. cost of equity (10.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.48x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $72.42 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $62.26 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $26.01 (55% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly