AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag CF as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for CF is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value CF?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from CF's most recent reported fundamentals.

CF - CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $109.44 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 59.7% above fair value

Current Price $121.70

Bear Case $52.02 57.3% downside ($52.02 - $121.70) / $121.70 = -57.3% $7.87 × 7x + net cash

Fair Value $76.21 37.4% downside ($76.21 - $121.70) / $121.70 = -37.4% $7.87 × 10x + net cash

Bull Case $100.41 17.5% downside ($100.41 - $121.70) / $121.70 = -17.5% $7.87 × 12x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

9.5x

Normalized EPS

7.87$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($7.87)

Implied Market Multiple 15.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $109.44 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $76.21 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 10.0x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $109.44 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing