AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies CF Industries Holdings, Inc. as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag CF as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for CF comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value CF?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. CF was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from CF's most recent reported fundamentals.

CF - CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $128.63 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 61.6% above fair value

Current Price $120.85

Bear Case $55.09 54.4% downside ($55.09 - $120.85) / $120.85 = -54.4% $7.87 × 7x

Fair Value $74.77 38.1% downside ($74.77 - $120.85) / $120.85 = -38.1% $7.87 × 10x

Bull Case $94.44 21.9% downside ($94.44 - $120.85) / $120.85 = -21.9% $7.87 × 12x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

9.5x

Normalized EPS

7.87$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($7.87)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 15.4x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $7.87 at a 10x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $74.77 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 9.8x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (42 analysts) $128.63

Analyst Range $110.00 – $162.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 42%

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 9.8x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $128.63 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 42% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing