Capital City Bank Group, Inc. logo CCBG - Capital City Bank Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $49.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $49.50
LOW: $49.50
MEDIAN: $49.50
CONSENSUS: $49.50
DOWNSIDE: 3.28%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 52.8% below fair value
Current Price $51.18
Bear Case $74.18 44.9% upside ($74.18 - $51.18) / $51.18 = 44.9% ROTCE 10.0% → 2.74x TBV
Fair Value $108.40 111.8% upside ($108.40 - $51.18) / $51.18 = 111.8% ROTCE 13.3% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $108.40 111.8% upside ($108.40 - $51.18) / $51.18 = 111.8% ROTCE 15.3% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.3%
6.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.3%) vs. cost of equity (6.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.89x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 13.3% vs. 6.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $27.10 tangible book, implying $108.40 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $49.50
Analyst Range $49.50 – $49.50
Divergence from AlphaVal 119%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $49.50 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 119% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly