Pathward Financial, Inc. logo CASH - Pathward Financial, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 8
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $82.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $82.00
LOW: $82.00
MEDIAN: $82.00
CONSENSUS: $82.00
DOWNSIDE: 0.89%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 32.1% below fair value
Current Price $82.74
Bear Case $95.92 15.9% upside ($95.92 - $82.74) / $82.74 = 15.9% ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair Value $121.82 47.2% upside ($121.82 - $82.74) / $82.74 = 47.2% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $158.37 91.4% upside ($158.37 - $82.74) / $82.74 = 91.4% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

33.9%
7.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (33.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.19x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $82.00 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $121.82 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $82.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 61% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly