Carter Bankshares, Inc. logo CARE - Carter Bankshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $27.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $27.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $27.00
CONSENSUS: $27.00
DOWNSIDE: 1.28%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 29.4% above fair value
Current Price $27.35
Bear Case $9.83 64.1% downside ($9.83 - $27.35) / $27.35 = -64.1% ROTCE 5.6% → 0.52x TBV
Fair Value $21.13 22.7% downside ($21.13 - $27.35) / $27.35 = -22.7% ROTCE 7.5% → 1.12x TBV
Bull Case $27.92 2.1% upside ($27.92 - $27.35) / $27.35 = 2.1% ROTCE 8.6% → 1.49x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

7.5%
7.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (7.5%) vs. cost of equity (7.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.46x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 7.5% vs. 7.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.12x on $18.79 tangible book, implying $21.13 per share. DDM cross-check: $8.63.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $8.63 (59% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly