Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. logo CALM - Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 5
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $100.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $100.00
LOW: $100.00
MEDIAN: $100.00
CONSENSUS: $100.00
UPSIDE: 12.93%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 86.0% below fair value
Current Price $88.55
Bear Case $405.19 357.6% upside ($405.19 - $88.55) / $88.55 = 357.6% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $630.59 612.1% upside ($630.59 - $88.55) / $88.55 = 612.1% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $884.77 899.2% upside ($884.77 - $88.55) / $88.55 = 899.2% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 2.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) -22.3% vs our 15.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $100.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $630.59 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $100.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 663% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions