The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated logo CAKE - The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 15
HOLD 27
SELL 6
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $65.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $75.00
LOW: $53.00
MEDIAN: $65.00
CONSENSUS: $65.50
UPSIDE: 7.13%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 0.9% below fair value
Current Price $61.14
Bear Case $50.80 16.9% downside ($50.80 - $61.14) / $61.14 = -16.9% $3.53 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $61.68 0.9% upside ($61.68 - $61.14) / $61.14 = 0.9% $3.53 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $72.57 18.7% upside ($72.57 - $61.14) / $61.14 = 18.7% $3.53 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
3.53$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $65.50 from 48 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $61.68 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples