Credit Acceptance Corporation logo CACC - Credit Acceptance Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 12
SELL 6
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $540.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $540.00
LOW: $540.00
MEDIAN: $540.00
CONSENSUS: $540.00
DOWNSIDE: 0.88%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 70% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 42.4% below fair value
Current Price $544.80
Bear Case $636.84 16.9% upside ($636.84 - $544.80) / $544.80 = 16.9% 5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $945.79 73.6% upside ($945.79 - $544.80) / $544.80 = 73.6% 8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $1,236.19 126.9% upside ($1,236.19 - $544.80) / $544.80 = 126.9% 11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.5%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 11.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $540.00 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $945.79 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $540.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 100% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions