BRKL - Brookline Bancorp, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
7.1%
9.3%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (7.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.01x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 7.1% vs. 9.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.59x on $10.81 tangible book, implying $12.43 per share. DDM cross-check: $8.51.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (7.1%) is below the minimum investors require (9.3%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $8.51 (32% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly