Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. logo BR - Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $210.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $257.00
LOW: $165.00
MEDIAN: $207.00
CONSENSUS: $210.00
UPSIDE: 39.04%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 4.2% below fair value
Current Price $151.04
Bear Case $117.00 22.5% downside ($117.00 - $151.04) / $151.04 = -22.5% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $157.65 4.4% upside ($157.65 - $151.04) / $151.04 = 4.4% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $195.87 29.7% upside ($195.87 - $151.04) / $151.04 = 29.7% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 20.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 9.2% vs our 8.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $210.00 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $157.65 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $210.00 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions