The Bank of Nova Scotia logo BNS - The Bank of Nova Scotia

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 10
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $72.15 DETAILS
HIGH: $75.60
LOW: $67.00
MEDIAN: $73.00
CONSENSUS: $72.15
DOWNSIDE: 9.56%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 14.4% above fair value
Current Price $79.78
Bear Case $48.81 38.8% downside ($48.81 - $79.78) / $79.78 = -38.8% ROTCE 8.3% → 0.61x TBV
Fair Value $69.72 12.6% downside ($69.72 - $79.78) / $79.78 = -12.6% ROTCE 11.0% → 1.01x TBV
Bull Case $90.64 13.6% upside ($90.64 - $79.78) / $79.78 = 13.6% ROTCE 12.7% → 1.24x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.0%
11.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.0%) vs. cost of equity (11.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.92x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $72.15 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $69.72 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $30.69 (55% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7239 USD per CAD.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly