Badger Meter, Inc. logo BMI - Badger Meter, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 10
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $167.29 DETAILS
HIGH: $220.00
LOW: $110.00
MEDIAN: $167.00
CONSENSUS: $167.29
UPSIDE: 32.94%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 16.9% below fair value
Current Price $125.84
Bear Case $108.64 13.7% downside ($108.64 - $125.84) / $125.84 = -13.7% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $151.35 20.3% upside ($151.35 - $125.84) / $125.84 = 20.3% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $195.33 55.2% upside ($195.33 - $125.84) / $125.84 = 55.2% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 21.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $167.29 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $151.35 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions