AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Blue Bird Corporation's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag BLBD as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Blue Bird Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for BLBD is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value BLBD?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from BLBD's most recent reported fundamentals.

BLBD - Blue Bird Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $80.50 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 123.4% above fair value

Current Price $66.30

Bear Case $23.89 64.0% downside ($23.89 - $66.30) / $66.30 = -64.0% $1.32 × 7x + net cash

Fair Value $29.68 55.2% downside ($29.68 - $66.30) / $66.30 = -55.2% $1.32 × 10x + net cash

Bull Case $35.46 46.5% downside ($35.46 - $66.30) / $66.30 = -46.5% $1.32 × 12x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

9.5x

Normalized EPS

1.32$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.32)

Implied Market Multiple 50.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $80.50 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $29.68 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Recent profits ($3.88/share) are 193% above the mid-cycle average ($1.32). Buying based on peak profits is the most common mistake with boom-and-bust businesses.

⚠ Price-to-book value of 10.8x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $80.50 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 79% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing