BankUnited, Inc. logo BKU - BankUnited, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 17
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $50.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $54.00
LOW: $48.00
MEDIAN: $50.00
CONSENSUS: $50.67
UPSIDE: 9.25%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 19.1% above fair value
Current Price $46.38
Bear Case $27.26 41.2% downside ($27.26 - $46.38) / $46.38 = -41.2% ROTCE 6.8% → 0.41x TBV
Fair Value $38.94 16.0% downside ($38.94 - $46.38) / $46.38 = -16.0% ROTCE 9.0% → 0.74x TBV
Bull Case $50.62 9.1% upside ($50.62 - $46.38) / $46.38 = 9.1% ROTCE 10.4% → 0.94x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.0%
10.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.0%) vs. cost of equity (10.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.13x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 9.0% vs. 10.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.74x on $40.95 tangible book, implying $38.94 per share. DDM cross-check: $28.08.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $50.67
Analyst Range $48.00 – $54.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 23%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (9.0%) is below the minimum investors require (10.8%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $28.08 (28% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly