BankUnited, Inc. logo BKU - BankUnited, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 18
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $53.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $65.00
LOW: $49.00
MEDIAN: $52.50
CONSENSUS: $53.75
UPSIDE: 16.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 8.4% above fair value
Current Price $46.22
Bear Case $29.85 35.4% downside ($29.85 - $46.22) / $46.22 = -35.4% ROTCE 6.8% → 0.41x TBV
Fair Value $42.64 7.7% downside ($42.64 - $46.22) / $46.22 = -7.7% ROTCE 9.0% → 0.74x TBV
Bull Case $55.43 19.9% upside ($55.43 - $46.22) / $46.22 = 19.9% ROTCE 10.4% → 0.94x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.0%
10.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.0%) vs. cost of equity (10.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.13x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $53.75 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $42.64 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (9.0%) is below the minimum investors require (10.8%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $28.03 (28% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $53.75 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly