BankUnited, Inc. logo BKU - BankUnited, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 18
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $48.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $52.00
LOW: $47.00
MEDIAN: $48.50
CONSENSUS: $48.67
UPSIDE: 15.18%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 8.5% above fair value
Current Price $42.26
Bear Case $27.26 35.5% downside ($27.26 - $42.26) / $42.26 = -35.5% ROTCE 6.8% → 0.40x TBV
Fair Value $38.94 7.8% downside ($38.94 - $42.26) / $42.26 = -7.8% ROTCE 9.0% → 0.73x TBV
Bull Case $50.62 19.8% upside ($50.62 - $42.26) / $42.26 = 19.8% ROTCE 10.4% → 0.92x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.0%
10.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.0%) vs. cost of equity (10.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.01x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 9.0% vs. 10.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.73x on $41.78 tangible book, implying $38.94 per share. DDM cross-check: $27.05.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (30 analysts) $48.67
Analyst Range $47.00 – $52.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 20%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (9.0%) is below the minimum investors require (10.9%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $27.05 (31% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly