Baidu, Inc. logo BIDU - Baidu, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 40
HOLD 13
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $143.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $158.00
LOW: $124.00
MEDIAN: $145.00
CONSENSUS: $143.00
UPSIDE: 36.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 2.9% above fair value
Current Price $104.92
Bear Case $81.56 22.3% downside ($81.56 - $104.92) / $104.92 = -22.3% $5.32 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $101.97 2.8% downside ($101.97 - $104.92) / $104.92 = -2.8% $5.32 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $122.35 16.6% upside ($122.35 - $104.92) / $104.92 = 16.6% $5.32 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
5.32$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $143.00 from 53 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $101.97 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 206%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $143.00 (from 53 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1479 USD per CNY.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples